The Kansas City Royals (8-11) face off against the Detroit Tigers (10-8) in a crucial AL Central showdown to kick off a four-game series at Comerica Park on Thursday, April 17, 2025. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Both teams are coming off disappointing series, with the Royals swept by the New York Yankees and the Tigers dropping two of three to the Milwaukee Brewers. With the AL Central race heating up, this matchup promises to be a tightly contested battle. Here’s our prediction, best picks, and odds analysis for today’s game.
Game Overview
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Date and Time: Thursday, April 17, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
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Location: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
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Pitching Matchup: Michael Lorenzen (Royals) vs. Reese Olson (Tigers)
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Broadcast: FDSDET (Tigers), FDSKC (Royals)
Royals vs. Tigers Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
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Moneyline: Tigers -154, Royals +129
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Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+143), Royals +1.5 (-182)
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Over/Under: 7.5 runs (Over -110, Under -110)
The Tigers are favored at home, reflecting their strong 5-1 record at Comerica Park this season. The Royals, struggling with a 2-7 road record, are underdogs but carry value given their historical success against Detroit’s starter.
Team Analysis
Kansas City Royals
The Royals are reeling after a three-game sweep in New York, where their offense managed just six runs across the series. Kansas City ranks 29th in MLB in runs scored per game (3.1) and dead last in home runs (10). Their .206 team batting average is 28th in the league, highlighting their offensive struggles, particularly on the road where they’ve scored more than four runs just once in nine games.
However, the Royals’ pitching staff has been a bright spot, boasting a 3.34 team ERA (4th in MLB) and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings (14th). Michael Lorenzen (1-2, 3.71 ERA) takes the mound for Kansas City. Despite a mediocre start to 2025, Lorenzen has a strong track record against Detroit, posting a 2.11 ERA with a 14:11 K/BB ratio in 21.1 career innings against them. Current Tigers hitters have a .224 expected batting average (xBA) and .330 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) in 49 plate appearances against him, suggesting he could keep Detroit’s bats in check.
Bobby Witt Jr. remains the Royals’ offensive catalyst, riding a nine-game hitting streak with a .400 batting average and 1.106 OPS during that span. Against Tigers starter Reese Olson, Witt is 6-for-11 with a double, triple, and two home runs, making him a prime candidate to spark Kansas City’s lineup.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers sit atop the AL Central with a 10-8 record, bolstered by a stellar 5-1 home record that has earned bettors a $241 return on $100 wagers. However, their offense has sputtered recently, scoring just one run over their last two games in Milwaukee. Detroit ranks 11th in runs scored (4.5 per game) and 11th in home runs (20), with a .238 team batting average (12th). Their 9.8 strikeouts per game (27th) indicate a propensity to chase pitches, which could play into Lorenzen’s hands.
Reese Olson (1-1, 6.00 ERA) starts for Detroit but has struggled early in 2025, allowing 10 earned runs on 17 hits and seven walks in 15 innings across three starts. His 1.67 WHIP is the worst of his career, and he ranks poorly in expected batting average (33rd percentile) and expected slugging (18th percentile). Against the Royals last season, Olson gave up six earned runs on 12 hits in 12 innings over three starts, with Kansas City’s hitters—led by Witt—tagging him for a .437 xBA and .926 xSLG.
Spencer Torkelson leads Detroit’s offense with a .273 batting average, six home runs, and 13 RBIs, ranking fourth in MLB in homers. Kerry Carpenter (.268 BA, 5 HR) and Zach McKinstry (.269 BA) provide additional pop, but the Tigers’ recent offensive woes suggest they may struggle to capitalize unless Olson finds his form.
Betting Trends
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Royals: 2-6 as underdogs this season, 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games, and 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with Detroit. They’ve failed to cover the run line in their last eight games against the Tigers following a loss.
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Tigers: 5-0 as moneyline favorites with odds of -138 or shorter, 8-9-1 in over/under, and 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games. They’ve covered the run line in their last 10 night games against AL Central opponents.
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Head-to-Head: The Royals lead the all-time series 393-392, but Detroit holds a 207-187 edge at home. In 2024, Detroit won 10 of 13 meetings, including the last five.
Prediction and Best Bets
Moneyline Pick: Royals (+129)
Despite their road struggles, the Royals offer value as underdogs. Lorenzen’s historical success against Detroit and Olson’s shaky start give Kansas City an edge in the pitching matchup. Bobby Witt Jr.’s dominance against Olson (6-for-11, 2 HR) could ignite the Royals’ offense, which is due for a breakout. The Tigers’ recent inability to score (one run in two games) further tilts this game toward Kansas City pulling off the upset.
Run Line Pick: Royals +1.5 (-182)
Given the low-scoring tendencies of both teams (Royals 7-12 O/U, Tigers 8-9-1 O/U) and the strength of Kansas City’s pitching, this game is likely to be close. The Royals have a 6-12 run line record but face a Tigers team that has failed to produce offensively of late. Taking the Royals to keep it within a run is a safer play than the moneyline for conservative bettors.
Over/Under Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
Both offenses are in slumps, with the Royals averaging 2.9 runs per game on the road and the Tigers scoring one run over their last two games. Lorenzen’s ability to limit Detroit’s bats and Olson’s potential to settle in against a weak Kansas City lineup point to a low-scoring affair. The under has hit in 12 of Kansas City’s 19 games and is a strong play given the pitching matchup and offensive trends.
Prop Bet: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+200)
Witt’s track record against Olson (6-for-11, 2 HR, .926 xSLG) and his current nine-game hitting streak make him a prime candidate to drive in a run. At +200 odds, this prop offers excellent value for a player who has been Kansas City’s most consistent offensive threat.
Final Prediction: Royals 4, Tigers 3
We expect a pitcher’s duel early, with Lorenzen outlasting Olson. Witt Jr. delivers a key hit to give the Roya
